NFL Prop Betting Strategy
Pinnacle Sports offer tips on betting NFL props and details line movements on the weekend's biggest games.
While many players find Props easy to beat, this market has traditionally been the domain of smaller players. This year the popularity of NFL Props has increased immensely at Pinnacle Sports, creating two new advantages. First, there's more two-way action causing line moves. Second, other sportsbooks are trying to offer many NFL Props and some are even copying Pinnacle Sportsbook's lines. These two factors combined mean: (1) Larger players can bet more on a single Prop; and (2) Smaller players can get a better price by shopping and watching line moves. With -108 pricing on NFL Props and up to $1,000 limits, Pinnacle Sports offers consistent value and more often than not, the best price on props.
The popularity of Super Bowl Props, has led to a gradual increase in the number of regular season games with proposition betting available. Most sports books like Pinnacle Sportsbetting regularly offer them on the Sunday/Monday night games. With so many chances to bet props and so many players betting the wrong side through poor handicapping, sharp players can now capitalize more than ever on NFL props.
One of the most common props offered is: "Which team will score first?" Many recreational players like betting the favorite, regardless of the price. Frequently there are not enough professional prop players to keep the lines in shape, so the price on the dog will gradually creep up, giving a good opportunity.
The best way to price any prop is to find thousands of occurrences of similar situations. If there are enough similar games, a bettor can simply count how many times a similar favorite scored first. However, there are two problems with this approach. First, many props don't have enough similar situations to give a meaningful comparison. Second, even if there's enough games to evaluate, it's too time consuming to collect and analyze all the data.
It's more practical to price the "team to score first" prop by analyzing it without looking at several games. With the right approach, most proposition bets can be priced by using team and/or player statistics.
The "team to score first" prop has a straightforward solution. Simply use the line for the first half of the game and calculate how many points a team will be expected to score in the first half. For example, if the first half line is "Dallas -3/Atlanta +3" with a first half total of 23, the market price "suggests" the first-half score would be Dallas 13, Atlanta 10. This score is determined by subtracting the spread (3) from the total (23), getting 20 total points. Then split the total points (20) between the two teams and add the spread (3) to the favorite.
Once the first half score is predicted, the moneyline for the favorite to score first is -100 * (Favorite Score / Underdog Score). In this example, it would be -100 * (13/10), or -130 for Dallas to score first. The underdog is the opposite: +130 for Atlanta. While pricing props is not an exact science, this approach will provide a good estimate.
What are players betting at Pinnacle Sports this week?
Baltimore +3 +109 v. Cincinnati
As a bookmaker, there are times when we see what players do and think, "How did they know the line would do that?" In this case, the Bengals opened as 2-point favorites. The early sharps played the Bengals, and some of those later played the Ravens for a nice scalp AND middle at +3 (+109). While even the best players rarely get a position as nice as this, it does exemplify that any side can be the sharp side at the right price.
USC -12.5 -106 v. UCLA
Since this game alone can conclude the BCS National Championship picture, it's not surprising it's the most heavily traded game. USC opened at -11 (-105), where the price drifted up to -13½ due to public money. At that point, some sharps played UCLA plus the points, with a few buying the "14".
Arkansas +2½ -104 v. Florida
The SEC title game opened with the Gators -3 (+100). The volume and number of bets have been heavy, but flat on both sides. The market price crept up, forcing a "move on air", but the sharps have not given any clear guidance on this game.
Dallas -3½ -108 v. New York Giants
After opening the Cowboys as 3-point favorites, the early sharps kept backing Dallas, pushing the line up to -3½. The line moved up, despite the public favoring the Giants by a 7-to-4 margin.
BCS National Championship: USC +5 -110 v. Ohio State
Although USC has not been selected for the big game yet, players can still bet it at Pinnacle Sports. All bets will be cancelled if USC doesn't play in the Championship game.
Trading for most games falls into recognizable patterns that are defined by the level of interest by different groups, from public to syndicates. Despite the early heavy volume, this game is very puzzling. There are twice as many wagers on Ohio State, but nearly twice as many dollars on USC. With that type of profile, one would expect the sharps to be on USC, but the sharps are split fairly evenly on this game.
