Critical Champions League Clashes
With just two rounds of fixtures remaining in the Champions League, six teams have already booked their place in the knock-out stages – Liverpool, Bayern Munich, Real Madrid, Lyon, Valencia , and PSV are sitting pretty.
From a betting perspective, the fixtures involving those six teams should therefore be treated with caution. Respective managers will be balancing the opportunity to rest key players against the benefits of qualifying as a Group winner.
Pinnacle Sports has prices for all sixteen midweek ties for match-day five, but there are some intriguing fixtures where is everything is left to play for.
One of the most appealing takes place at Celtic Park on Tuesday night, when the leaders of the Scottish Premier League, Celtic, host the current leaders of the English Premiership, Manchester United, in the second instalment of the Battle of Britain. This was expected to be a dead rubber for the Red Devils, as no-one could have foreseen their 1-0 defeat in Denmark to FC Copenhagen, but given that on the same night the Bhoys were given a torrid time at the Stadium of Light by Benfica, Group F has been thrown wide open.
Alex Ferguson's side still top the section with nine points and are in the box seat, requiring just one more to book their place in the knock-out phase, but should they lose in Glasgow, it would set things up for a nervous final home game against Benfica. Fergie has had some bad experiences at the hands of Portuguese teams in this competition so will want to sew things up here and avoid that scenario.
The motivation for the home side couldn't be greater, if Benfica and Copenhagen draw, a home win could see the Hoops past the group stage for the first time, and send the home fans into delirium. Both sides warmed up with victories on the weekend, United recorded a seventh straight Premiership win, with another virtuoso from Wayne Rooney, while Celtic maintained a 100% home league record and extended a 19 game unbeaten run in front of their owns fans. Pinnacle Sports have United as slight favourites 2.1 (-0.5) with Celtic 1.833 (+0.5).
The Scottish Champions have lost just one of six home Champions League ties against English opposition at Celtic Park, and in total won eight from eleven home fixtures, while United boast the greater overall experience having won the competition in 1999. With their respective form, an irresistible force meets an immovable object, but something will have to give.
Group G has three teams separated by just a single point, one of which is Arsenal, who must take full points against Hamburg who prop up the table with nil-point. The Gunners had seemed to have got some uncertain form at their new home stadium out of their system, but suffered another hiccup drawing at home to struggling Newcastle on Saturday. Thierry Henry started on the bench, but was needed to rescue the Londoners. Arsene Wenger was furious that his captain had played a full 90 minutes in a midweek friendly for France , and was clearly resting him with this game in mind.
Arsenal beat Hamburg in Germany , and have yet to concede in two home Champions League fixtures this term. The Germans have nothing to play for in this competition and coach Thomas Doll must focus all his energy on the Bundesliga. HSV sit second from bottom, and have scored just once in five league fixtures. Doll has been cursed with a horrendous injury list, and he will be desperate to avoid adding any key players to that roll-call, from this meaningless game. All this points to a comfortable home win, as long as the Gunners can settle their nerves at the Emirates Stadium and Pinnacle Sports post Arsenal 1.909 (-1.5 & -2) with Bremen 2.02 (+1.5 & +2).
On Wednesday night Chelsea face German opposition, but are in a much more comfortable position than their London rivals. The Blues 2.23 (0/scratch) need only a point against Werder Bremen 1.752 (0/scratch) to make a mathematical certainty of qualification, and with final home tie to come against Group A whipping boys, Levski Sofia, Jose Mourinho should be comfortable of getting it. Their status as underdogs for this game underlines the relative motivations. In fact it won't have escaped the Special One's attention that defeat may actually be in his favour, as it would put the pressure on Barcelona, who are serious rivals for overall success, but are currently two points behind Bremen and in danger of falling at the first hurdle.
The Catalans go to Bulgaria where anything other than a win against Levski Sofia could end their defence of the Champions League title. They should achieve that with ease, both Chelsea and Bremen took maximum points scoring three, but injuries to several key players might keep the score to a respectable level. Pinnacle Sports is taking no chances pricing the OVERS at 2.08 for more than 3 & 3.5 goals, as Barca's fate could conceivably be settled by goal-difference.
