What Are The Odds?

Chance is something that preoccupies online gamblers and UK casino punters. Are you really more likely to be struck by lightning than win the National Lottery? What are the odds of being hit by an asteroid, or for that matter, winning at roulette? UK Casino Times takes a look at probability and chance.

When Irish grandmother Dolores McNamara scooped a £77million Euromillions lottery jackpot, she really was beating some formidable odds - by 76,275,360 to 1, to be precise. Although the odds of winning the jackpot on the UK National Lottery are a little more friendly - around 14 million to 1 - it's often said that you have more chance of being struck by lightning than picking the winning ticket.

In fact, a lightning strike with your name on it is considerably more likely, at just one in 600,000 or so. The odds of dying of a flesh-eating bacterial disease are more favourable than those of winning the lottery, at 1 in 1 million. But given the huge lottery prizes and relatively small stakes, it's not surprising that people keep buying their tickets.

If you are going to gamble, on the lottery or anything else, it does help to be aware of your chances of winning. However, probability and chance are poorly understood, even by gamblers, who perhaps ought to know better. For example, there is still a widespread belief that if a number has not come up for some time, it is somehow "due" to do so, even when common sense says that the odds are not influenced by what has gone before. This is known as the "gamblers' fallacy". Many gamblers also have faith in unproven betting systems which they think influence the odds in their favour.

To put the record straight, here are some facts involving the odds of winning at some of the most popular games, as well as the chances of experiencing a few other life events.

Roulette:

These vary depending on what type of game you play. Odds of winning on a single number in European roulette are 36 to 1, and 37 to 1 in American roulette.

Earth being hit by a large asteroid:

It depends on the asteroid. According to astronomers, the odds of giant asteroid 2004 QQ47 hitting the earth in 2014 are one in 909,000.

Slot machines:

Odds of winning the top prize can range from 1 in 4,096 to 1 in 33,554,000.

Getting a hole in one in golf:

A mere 42,952 to one for an amateur.

Bingo:

Odds are determined by the game pattern, how many people are playing and, to a certain extent, how many cards you play. One mathematician using a £10 bet placed on various gambling formats calculated the odds of winning £1million on the National Game at 200,000 to 1.

Monopoly:

Forget buying every property you land on, or putting a hotel on Mayfair. The science of probability shows that buying the orange properties is the key to winning. Landing on the orange properties is most likely because they can be reached from the jail square (the most frequently visited) with a total of 6, 8 or 9 - the most probable totals.

So now you know.