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25 August 2005
Too Scared To Be A
Millionaire
Most
people are not natural gamblers, reveals a study of the game
show Who
Wants to be a Millionaire?
As a group, contestants would take home a lot more money if
they took more risks.
Economists know that some
people worry more than others – especially about the
prospect of painful losses – when facing decisions with
uncertain outcomes. A fearless gambler may take any bet with
favourable odds, but many people, being "risk averse", will
pass on such bets just to avoid the possibility of a
significant loss.
As economist Gauthier
Lanot of the Queen's University in Belfast, Ireland and
colleagues have now shown, 'risk averse' seems to describe
how most people play Who Wants to be a
Millionaire.
They modelled the
behaviour of 515 participants in the first eleven series of
the UK game, in which players face a sequence of
multiple-choice questions, continuing as long as they answer
correctly. A player's potential winnings roughly double at
each stage, but they also face progressively greater losses
– and, consequently, a temptation to quit while
ahead.
Of the 515 contestants,
only three contestants went the entire way to win the
£1 million. In general, participants were so risk
averse that roughly two-thirds left the programme by
quitting while they were ahead, while only one-third ended
the game by gambling on a question they then answered
incorrectly.
The economists' analysis,
based around a mathematical model, suggest that more people
would have won a million – and the contestants have
taken home more overall – if they were less risk averse
and willing to gamble. But contestants would also have
suffered some staggering losses, against human nature. "Most
people are not reckless," says Lanot. "They are cautious and
worry a lot about losses."
He believes the
contestants are a good model for the rest of the population
in terms of risk-taking. "No university would ever fund us
to do something like this," he adds.
The study was presented at
the World Congress of the Econometric Society at University
College London, UK on Wednesday.
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