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02 December
2006
NFL Prop Betting
Strategy
Pinnacle Sports offer
tips on betting NFL props and details line movements on the
weekend's biggest games.
While many players find
Props easy to beat, this market has traditionally been the
domain of smaller players. This year the popularity of NFL
Props has increased immensely at Pinnacle
Sports, creating
two new advantages. First, there's more two-way action
causing line moves. Second, other sportsbooks are trying to
offer many NFL Props and some are even copying Pinnacle
Sportsbook's lines. These two factors combined mean: (1)
Larger players can bet more on a single Prop; and (2)
Smaller players can get a better price by shopping and
watching line moves. With -108 pricing on NFL Props and up
to $1,000 limits, Pinnacle Sports offers consistent value
and more often than not, the best price on props.
The popularity of Super
Bowl Props, has led to a gradual increase in the number of
regular season games with proposition betting available.
Most sports books like Pinnacle Sportsbetting regularly
offer them on the Sunday/Monday night games. With so many
chances to bet props and so many players betting the wrong
side through poor handicapping, sharp players can now
capitalize more than ever on NFL props.
One of the most common
props offered is: "Which team will score first?" Many
recreational players like betting the favorite, regardless
of the price. Frequently there are not enough professional
prop players to keep the lines in shape, so the price on the
dog will gradually creep up, giving a good
opportunity.
The best way to price any
prop is to find thousands of occurrences of similar
situations. If there are enough similar games, a bettor can
simply count how many times a similar favorite scored first.
However, there are two problems with this approach. First,
many props don't have enough similar situations to give a
meaningful comparison. Second, even if there's enough games
to evaluate, it's too time consuming to collect and analyze
all the data.
It's more practical to
price the "team to score first" prop by analyzing it without
looking at several games. With the right approach, most
proposition bets can be priced by using team and/or player
statistics.
The "team to score first"
prop has a straightforward solution. Simply use the line for
the first half of the game and calculate how many points a
team will be expected to score in the first half. For
example, if the first half line is "Dallas -3/Atlanta +3"
with a first half total of 23, the market price "suggests"
the first-half score would be Dallas 13, Atlanta 10. This
score is determined by subtracting the spread (3) from the
total (23), getting 20 total points. Then split the total
points (20) between the two teams and add the spread (3) to
the favorite.
Once the first half score
is predicted, the moneyline for the favorite to score first
is -100 * (Favorite Score / Underdog Score). In this
example, it would be -100 * (13/10), or -130 for Dallas to
score first. The underdog is the opposite: +130 for Atlanta.
While pricing props is not an exact science, this approach
will provide a good estimate.
What are players betting
at Pinnacle Sports this week?
Baltimore +3 +109 v.
Cincinnati
As a bookmaker, there are
times when we see what players do and think, "How did they
know the line would do that?" In this case, the Bengals
opened as 2-point favorites. The early sharps played the
Bengals, and some of those later played the Ravens for a
nice scalp AND middle at +3 (+109). While even the best
players rarely get a position as nice as this, it does
exemplify that any side can be the sharp side at the right
price.
USC -12.5 -106 v.
UCLA
Since this game alone can
conclude the BCS National Championship picture, it's not
surprising it's the most heavily traded game. USC opened at
-11 (-105), where the price drifted up to -13½ due to
public money. At that point, some sharps played UCLA plus
the points, with a few buying the "14".
Arkansas +2½ -104
v. Florida
The SEC title game opened
with the Gators -3 (+100). The volume and number of bets
have been heavy, but flat on both sides. The market price
crept up, forcing a "move on air", but the sharps have not
given any clear guidance on this game.
Dallas -3½ -108 v.
New York Giants
After opening the Cowboys
as 3-point favorites, the early sharps kept backing Dallas,
pushing the line up to -3½. The line moved up, despite
the public favoring the Giants by a 7-to-4
margin.
BCS National
Championship: USC +5 -110 v. Ohio State
Although USC has not been
selected for the big game yet, players can still bet it at
Pinnacle Sports. All bets will be cancelled if USC doesn't
play in the Championship game.
Trading for most games
falls into recognizable patterns that are defined by the
level of interest by different groups, from public to
syndicates. Despite the early heavy volume, this game is
very puzzling. There are twice as many wagers on Ohio State,
but nearly twice as many dollars on USC. With that type of
profile, one would expect the sharps to be on USC, but the
sharps are split fairly evenly on this game.
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