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22 November
2006
Bet With Your Head, Not Your
Heart
American Football and
Thanksgiving go together like Santa and Christmas. This
week, over turkey with all the trimmings, discussions at
dinner tables across the USA
will tell which team the public wants to bet. However, if
you want avoid the gambling equivalent of indigestion, there
are some key points to understand when sports books talk
about "public money".
The strength of some teams
seems so obvious that every armchair quarterback wants to
believe they're unbeatable. Selective memory takes over, as
bettors see only one outcome and pour their money onto the
"sure thing" after convincing themselves that the facts are
overwhelming. The greatest weakness with these "locks" is
they're so easy to recognize that everyone has the same
idea. What many players don't realise is that the line
reflects this and in many cases, books overcompensate for
these public plays.
An old rule of thumb was
that if you saw the public on one side of a game, stay off
that team! One of the best kept secrets in gambling is that
the average player wins only 49% of bets against the spread.
Until a player develops their handicapping skills to become
better than average, not even Pinnacle
Sport's
ultra-competitive -104 style pricing on NFL sides will help
them.
How can the public
possibly do so poorly? In simple terms, the public thinks
with their hearts and not their heads. If a line moves from
-3 to -3.5, public bettors are almost oblivious to the loss
in value playing the odds leader, and will keep betting it,
regardless.
To find who the public is
playing in a game, look no further than your office or
circle of friends. If everyone around the water cooler seems
to agree what the right side of a game is, you've most
likely found the public side. Further clues of public plays,
include the use of terms like "National Champion",
"Undefeated", and "QB Injury" when referring to a
team.
How can you bet with your
head and avoid being one of the squares? One concept to set
you apart from the public is to look past short-term
streaks. For example, let's take a look at the Cincinnati
Bengals. I chose them because at 5-5, they look like an
"average" team. The Bengals began the season 3-0 and as a
result, this average team started receiving public money.
Meanwhile, sharp bettors did not get excited over the quick
start because it was just three games".
The Bengals then proceeded
to lose five of their next six games, and were suddenly a
"bad" team on a three-game losing streak. The public, ripe
to fade such teams, were disappointed when Cincinnati upset
New Orleans. The sharps, viewing the season as a whole, saw
the Bengals as just an average team, sometimes good,
sometimes bad, but just average overall.
Teams that look either
great or terrible are seldom as extreme as their records
appear. The public doesn't appreciate this, which gives rise
to many profitable opportunities. If an average or good team
wins back-to-back blow-outs, the public will be quick to
jump on the bandwagon. Similarly, if a team plays flat for
two straight weeks, the public will fade them. In both
instances, the smart play will be to swim against the tide
of public opinion.
Another smart tactic is to
go against streaks, such as betting against a team that has
won four games or more in a row to cover the fifth week.
Players should also appreciate that teams on losing streaks
are more likely to over-perform, and bet accordingly. Taking
a quick look at this week's card, a team seeing an increase
in public support is the Chargers. They are the first NFL
team to win four straight while giving up 24 or more points
in each game. Laying 13 points against Oakland might be
considered a "trap" game.
What are players
betting this week at Pinnacle Sports Book?
Tampa Bay +11 -112 v.
Dallas
The Cowboys are coming off
their biggest win of the season, knocking off the previously
undefeated Colts. With last week's solid performance and
Dallas's reputation for playing well on Thanksgiving (Dallas
is 23-14-1 at home on Thanksgiving), they are an easy public
selection. Although the sharps have not expressed an opinion
on this game yet, our opener of Dallas -9.5 was bet all the
way up to -11.
LSU +1 -114 v.
Arkansas
The fifth-ranked
Razorbacks are still in the chase for a BCS Championship
Game appearance. They have two difficult match-ups
remaining: LSU, and the SEC Championship. In addition to
winning out, Arkansas needs USC and Florida to lose. We
opened Arkansas at -1.5, and took heavy balanced action.
There is no obvious sharp side at the time of
writing.
Notre Dame +7.5 -114 v.
USC
USC is less than 1/100th
of a point behind Michigan in the BCS standings. If the
Trojans win this week and again next week versus UCLA, they
should move to the #2 spot and play for the national
championship. Notre Dame is a long shot to catch Michigan
and will likely play in another BCS bowl regardless of
whether they win.
We opened the Trojans at
-6, and took a lot of early sharp action on USC. We found a
"pressure point" at USC -7. The sharps keep playing USC at
-7, but pass at -7.5. Irish backers seem content to play
them at +7 or +7.5. The Trojans have recently dominated the
Irish, winning the last four contests. USC has been
especially strong under Pete Carroll in November, racking up
a 19-0 record (including 3-0 this year).
Chicago +3 +111 v. New
England
Our favorite type of game
to book is one where sharps play both sides, as in this
game. Everyone knows Chicago's offense has had problems,
they're ranked only 19th in terms of yards per play. The
Bears offense also has 20 giveaways; only five teams have
turned it over more this season. Despite this, the Bears
have the second best turnover differential at +9. In
addition to forcing turnovers (#1 in the league with 29),
the defense has scored five touchdowns on returns. When you
have a team as polarized as Chicago, sharps often line up on
different sides, each believing their methodology is more
valid than the others.
New York Giants -3 -114 v.
Tennessee
Despite Eli Manning's poor
performance versus Jacksonville on Monday Night (19 of 41
passing with 1 TD and 2 INTs), the Giants are getting backed
by sharps and the public alike. The G-men opened at -3 +104,
and have been favored by sports bettors at a 5:2
ratio.
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